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24/02/2025 - 08:42 UTCThe US dollar lost value against major currencies last week Thursday, with the USDX down for a fourth consecutive week pressured by soft economic data from the U.S., hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and Japan's strong inflation data, suggesting an upcoming rate increase.
Wall Street suffered a sharp decline in the past week, with all three major stock indices ending last week deep into negative territory as worries about a slowing economy intensified. Disappointing purchasing manager data and weak consumer confidence fueled these concerns, which were compounded by ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies. Additionally, Nvidia experienced significant losses, reflecting increasing skepticism about the artificial intelligence sector, particularly following the emergence of China's DeepSeek. Investors are now awaiting Nvidia's earnings release on Wednesday for further clarity. On the earnings front, several other major market players are due to release their quarterly reports this week, among which are Home Depot, Salesforce and Deutsche Telecom.
Crude oil prices lost most of the gains seen early last week, with the two main benchmarks WTI and Brent closing the week moderately lower as concerns about reduced oil demand grew following disappointing U.S. economic figures, while the market also considered the possible effects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
In the crypto space, Bitcoin's price declined on Monday, continuing last week's 1% loss, as investors remained wary of the U.S. interest rate situation following disappointing economic reports. Adding to the negative pressure, a substantial security breach at the Bybit cryptocurrency exchange, involving the theft of approximately $1.5 billion in Ethereum, weakened sentiment across the crypto market.
For the week ahead the focus turns to the release of U.S. Preliminary GDP data, the Core PCE Price Index, and a quarterly earnings report from NVIDIA. Some price action could also be observed upon the release of the CB Consumer Confidence numbers, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the Chicago PMI.
The EUR/USD pair fell on Friday following the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) for the Eurozone.
Despite steady PMI growth, concerns persist among European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding upside risks to economic growth. Markets have fully priced in three ECB rate cuts this year, following the central bank’s decision to lower its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% last month.
Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that US business activity slowed to a 17-month low in February. The latest flash estimate revealed that the US S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 50.4 from 52.7 in January. While the Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 51.6, the Services PMI declined from 52.9 to 49.7, signaling a loss of momentum in the services sector.
Gold prices edged lower on Friday but closed the week with gains, marking eight straight weeks of upward momentum.
The broader market narrative remains unchanged as former US President Donald Trump continues to push for aggressive tariff policies.
This uncertainty surrounding US trade policies has fueled demand for bullion as investors seek safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with progress reported in discussions aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, offering a degree of relief to global markets.
Despite the slight pullback, gold remains in a strong uptrend, driven by market uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions. Investors will continue monitoring economic developments and geopolitical risks as key drivers for bullion prices in the coming weeks.
Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, declining more than $2 per barrel as investors weighed easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal in Ukraine.
The ongoing ceasefire in Gaza has helped stabilize the geopolitical risk premium, reducing market fears of major disruptions.
Investors also factored in an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, reported on Thursday. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), refinery maintenance led to reduced processing capacity, contributing to the buildup.
Looking ahead, traders will be watching for further developments in OPEC+ production policy, as expectations grow that the group may extend its current output cuts in response to crude prices remaining below $80 per barrel.
U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday, with the US 500 posting a sharp decline to end the week in the red as weaker-than-expected economic data raised concerns about slowing growth.
The latest S&P Global preliminary composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S.—which tracks activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors—declined to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January. Notably, the services PMI slipped into contraction territory, falling to 49.7 from 52.9.
The earnings season is winding down, but Wall Street is looking ahead to key reports THIS week, including results from artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse Nvidia.
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