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19/08/2024 - 07:54 UTCOn Friday, the US Dollar (USD), as tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), declined in response to the release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and weaker-than-anticipated housing market data. The Dollar Index (USDX) ended the session 0.58% lower and the week with moderate losses of 0.66%.
Analyzing the broader US economic landscape, the data indicates that the economy continues to grow at a pace above the long-term trend. This suggests that the market may be overestimating the likelihood of aggressive monetary easing, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains committed to a data-driven approach.
In July, single-family homebuilding in the U.S. declined as rising mortgage rates and high home prices discouraged potential buyers, indicating that the housing market remained subdued as the third quarter began.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, capping off their largest weekly percentage gains of the year as concerns about an economic downturn diminished and attention shifted to the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
All three major indexes achieved their most significant weekly percentage gains since late October, with the US 500 and US Tech 100 adding 3.89% and 5.34% respectively while US 30 ended the week 2.93% higher.
On the energy front, Oil prices fell sharply Friday after a series of weak indicators from China reignited concerns about demand growth from the world's top importer. These renewed concerns over the Chinese economy has overshadowed the more positive tone seen earlier in the week on the back of some reasonably healthy U.S. economic readings and signs of easing inflation in the country.
Market participants turn their focus to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and U.S. PMI data on Thursday, and the continuation of the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech being a key highlight.
The EUR/USD pair rebounded on Friday ending the session 0.48% higher. This recovery in the major currency pair was driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD), as investors grow increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may begin lowering interest rates as early as its September meeting.
The next significant event for the US Dollar will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the upcoming Jackson Hole (JH) symposium, scheduled for August 22-24. Powell's speech is anticipated to provide crucial insights into the Fed's interest rate strategy for the remainder of the year.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) continues to hold its ground as investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement a gradual approach to interest rate cuts.
Gold prices surged to a record high on Friday, driven by a weakening dollar amid rising expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, and heightened demand for bullion due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Gold has soared to a new all-time high, surpassing $2,500 after two weeks of volatile trading and attention now turns to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech next week is expected to provide a clearer outlook on the direction of future rate cuts.
Oil prices declined by nearly 2% on Friday, with little change over the week. Investor expectations for demand growth from China, the world's largest oil importer, have cooled.
Data released on Thursday indicated that China's economy slowed in July, with new home prices declining at their fastest rate in nine years, industrial output slowing, and unemployment rising. These developments have fueled concerns among traders about weakening demand from China, where refineries significantly reduced crude processing rates last month due to sluggish fuel demand.
Earlier in the week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its forecast for this year's oil demand growth downward, citing China's economic softness.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, extending their largest weekly percentage gains of the year as concerns over an economic downturn eased and attention turned to the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. All three major indexes recorded their biggest weekly percentage gains since late October.
A series of high-profile economic reports this week, including the Labor Department's consumer price index and the Commerce Department's retail sales report, reassured investors that inflation is gradually moving toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target and that consumer spending remains robust. Data released on Friday showed U.S. single-family housing starts fell to a nearly 1.5-year low in July, while the University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment index showed stronger-than-expected improvement.
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