The US Dollar Index (USDX) staged a significant rebound last week, ending 0.92% higher on the iFOREX platform, and continuing to push higher on Monday. This resurgence, reversing two consecutive weekly declines, was primarily driven by renewed attention on the trade front as President Donald Trump intensified his stance on tariffs.
Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea will take effect on August 1, alongside a new 50% tariff on imported copper, also effective August 1. He further signaled upcoming tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a formal letter detailing proposals for the European Union expected soon. Economists warn these tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures, challenging the Federal Reserve's 'wait-and-see' approach. Despite calls for immediate rate cuts from Trump, the Fed is likely to maintain its policy rate in July, with minutes from the June FOMC meeting indicating ongoing concerns about tariff-driven inflation. However, some Fed officials have expressed openness to lower rates later in the year, acknowledging overall uncertainty. The Dollar's recovery was also supported by solid domestic economic data and higher US Treasury yields.
Most Asian stocks traded within a tight range on Monday as investors absorbed the latest round of U.S. tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Despite some regional gains, overall sentiment was cautious. Broader Asian markets took a weak lead from Wall Street futures, which fell after Trump announced new 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union, effective August 1.
Chinese stock markets were muted on Monday, despite positive trade data for June. The China SSE and China SZSE indexes were almost unchanged as of 06:47 AM GMT Monday, while the Hong Kong 50 added around 0.43%. Customs data revealed that China's trade balance grew more than expected in June, notably boosted by a recovery in export growth. This trade performance points to sustained economic strength in the second quarter, setting a positive stage for Tuesday's second-quarter GDP release. However, weaker-than-expected import growth in June suggests local demand remains subdued, which could prompt further stimulus measures from Beijing. Investors are also awaiting Tuesday's industrial production and retail sales data for further insights.
Japanese shares showed little movement on Monday, with the Japan 225 adding 0.05% and the Japan 100 gaining 0.32%. This follows extended losses from earlier in the week, following the U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on Japan. Hopes for a trade deal between Tokyo and Washington appear to be waning, contributing to the subdued sentiment in Japanese markets.
Bitcoin hit a new record high of over $122,000 in Asian trading on Monday, buoyed by surging institutional adoption and anticipation for "Crypto Week" in Washington, starting later in the day. The world’s largest cryptocurrency added 2.56% as of 06:54 AM GMT Friday, reaching as high as $122,822 on the iFOREX platform. Japanese hotelier Metaplanet's increased Bitcoin holdings (now the fifth-largest corporate holder) and strong U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows underscore this institutional demand. Investor sentiment is further boosted by the expectation of several landmark crypto bills being debated in the U.S. House of Representatives during "Crypto Week," potentially establishing comprehensive regulatory frameworks. A strategic session by a major Chinese regulator on stablecoin and digital currency policy last week also signaled a potential shift in China's crypto stance. Following Bitcoin's lead, most altcoins also jumped on Wednesday, with Ethereum reaching a five-month high while XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Polygon all saw notable gains, as did meme tokens like Dogecoin and $TRUMP.
U.S. stock index futures fell on Sunday evening amid concerns over trade policy. Beyond this, the market's attention for the upcoming week is primarily on key fundamental releases. A major focus will be the consumer inflation data for June, due on Tuesday. This report will provide crucial insights into pricing trends, particularly regarding any inflationary impact. Concurrently, the second-quarter earnings season is set to commence in earnest on Tuesday. A host of major banks are slated to report, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), and Citigroup Inc (C). U.S. stock index futures, as reflected by the US 500, the US tech 100, and the US 30, all fell 0.47%, 0.37% and 0.75% respectively on Friday as broader market concerns weighed on sentiment.
Looking ahead, the US Dollar's trajectory will be closely watched next week with the release of the June US Inflation Rate, followed by Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment flash print. Additionally, several Fed officials are expected to offer further insights into their policy views before the pre-meeting blackout period commences ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting.