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12
Sep

UK Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Oracle Earnings

calendar 12/09/2022 - 10:07 UTC

The dollar traded overall weaker against other major currencies and some emerging market pairs over the past days, though in pairs like teh USD/CNH and USD/INR a moderate upside was seen by Monday morning. The USD/TRY pair remains in a relatively restricted range and for now the uptrend might have stopped as the last year-to-date record high was established on Tuesday last week.

Crypto markets were overall bullish during the second half of last week, pushing the total estiamated crypto market cap towards the $1.1 trillion level. By Monday Bitcoin reached a new three weeks high at levels above $22k and later retaced towards its position seen during the previous day, while Ethereum is now trading lower for the second day in a row.

Gold prices remained almost unchanged over the past few days, while silver broke out higher with the price up by more than five per cent since the recovery started last Wednesday.

A bullish sentiment was seen in most major equity market indices on Friday across the world including the US 500, Europe 50, Japan 225 (Yen) and even the China A50 index. While the China A50 index faced a strong retracement, losing by Monday morning around one per cent of its value again, the other indices were either flat or still bullish.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD rate managed to make some further advances higher, trading at times even above the 1.01-threshold though for now not being able to establish a firm hold of that level. This move was likely caused mostly by a relatively weakened dollar as the euro traded mostly stable against other major currencies with only a very moderate trend to the upside seen in pairs like the EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD.

For this week multiple potentially important fundamental data releases are scheduled including industrial production data from Italy (Monda), the German consumer price index (CPI), the ZEW survey and Italian unemployment rate statistics on Tuesday and towards the end of the week CPI data for Italy and the eurozone.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair moved clearly higher on Friday in line with the overall trend towards a weaker dollar and also opened with a gap up after the weekend break. On a weekly basis this also marks a break from the trend to the downside as the rate was up for the first time in four weeks after earlier reaching a new low since October 2016 when the market faced significant uncertainty following the surprise Brexit referendum results in June of the same year.

On Monday morning multiple important fundamental statistics for July will be published in the United Kingdom, including data on manufacturing output, industrial production and trade balance. Then on Tuesday the unemployment rate statistics for August can be expected.

GBP/USD

WTI Oil

On Friday oil prices moved higher for the second day in a row, however this recovery was not enough to offset the downside seen during the previous days of the week and thus oil closed this week for the second time in a row lower as prices at a point were down to the lowest levels since January. The U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count statistic once again showed declining activity as only 591 oil rigs were reported in operation (previous week 596). This is also the lowest activity level since June.

As usual on Tuesday the American Petroleum Insitute (API) publishes its weekly statistical bulletin, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday, which also includes data on changes in crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

For Tuesday the release of the monthly oil market report by OPEC is scheduled and then on Wednesay the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly OECD oil statistic.

WTI Oil

US Tech 100

Major stock market indices like the US 500 and the US Tech 100 continued to rally higher for the third day in a row on Friday, bringing the index back into the green on a weekly basis. Zscaler (+22.28%) and DocuSign (+10.71%) were the two best-performing components of the NASDAQ Composite Index on Friday realising their gains from the extended session of the previous day following positive earnings results.

Stock performance was overall positive practically across almost all economic sectors with chip stocks (US Semiconductors ETF +2.55%) making a strong recovery as did energy companies (+2.64%) as oil prices rebounded from their recent low.

On Monday Oracle is publishing its quarterly results while on Thursday Adobe will release its numbers.

US Tech 100

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