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9
May

U.K. Halifax HPI, France Trade Balance, FOMC members speak

calendar 09/05/2023 - 07:55 UTC

The dollar traded moderately higher on Monday, ending the day with a 0.05% gain on the iFOREX platform, still trading sideways between levels 100.81 and 102.2. Emerging market currencies barely moved against the dollar on Monday, with the USD/ZAR falling by 0.55%, while the USD/INR and the USD/MXN gained 0.09% and 0.11% of their value respectively.

The main stock market indices in the U.S. showed some minor gains on Monday, maintaining the positive tone seen on Friday, with the US 500 and the US tech 100 gaining 0.10% and 0.25% respectively while the US 30 closed moderately lower with investors waiting for new catalysts that could set a clear direction for prices. A quiet session was also observed in some of the main Asian stock indices, with the Hong Kong 50 gaining 0.67, the China A50 gaining 1.06% while the Japan 225 ended the session 0.09% lower.

Cryptos were seen falling sharply on Monday, with Bitcoin losing more than 3.5% of its value breaking below the range of $28,440 and $29,900 seen for the past week, and Ethereum fell by 2.15% to trade at $1,835 as at 08:14 PM GMT. The estimated crypto market capitalization dropped from $1.240 trillion on Sunday to $1,176 trillion late on Monday.

For Tuesday, the U.K. Halifax house price index and the French trade balance are due, while later in the day FOMC members Jefferson and Williams are about to speak. Investors could look to upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI inflation indicators later this week to get a better feel of how the Fed will react in its next monetary policy meeting.

EUR/USD

The euro traded between gains and losses and finally posted a moderate decline of 0.20% against the dollar on Monday, in a subdued trading session as investors remain on the side-lines possibly trying to get a more clear view on the status of the U.S. economy.

Solid U.S jobs data and record low unemployment seem to back up expectations that the Fed might ease its monetary policy schedule in the months to come. The European Central Bank on the other hand, is expected to keep interest rates high for longer than the Fed providing some support to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices moved slightly on the upside on Monday, ending the session with a mere 0.2% gain following signs of renewed uncertainty in the markets, as traders are focusing on the debt ceiling impasse on Capitol Hill, with the Treasury Secretary warning the government might be unable to pay debts by June 1.

U.S. data remain in the spotlight for investors looking for more clues regarding the health of the economy and the status of global growth. Inflation data, due on Wednesday could attract investors attention.

Gold

WTI Oil

After reaching as low as $67,28 per barrel, WTI oil started a solid recovery since last Wednesday and marked a third consecutive daily gain on Monday by more than 2%.

The price of the fuel could be supported by easing concerns of a possible recession after the U.S. reported solid jobs data for April, and as analysts expect supply cuts at the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. Another view from market analysts is that the move is purely a technical recovery from oversold conditions.

The focus now is shifted to U.S. and Chinese economic indicators and specifically price inflation, trade, inflation, lending, and money supply data for April, as market participants try to assess the level of economic recovery.

WTI Oil

US 500

The main U.S. stock market indices posted some small fluctuations on Monday, with the US 500 and the US tech 100 ending the session slightly into positive territory while the US 30 traded almost unchanged as the impact from strong employment data and new signs of monetary policy easing by the Fed already seem to be fading.

In the spotlight for this week, however, could be the Labor Department's inflation report due on Wednesday, which is expected to show the consumer price index (CPI) likely climbed 0.4% in April after gaining 0.1% in March. Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data could also attract some attention.

A busy earnings schedule is due on Monday with companies such as Novavax Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc, Airbnb Inc, Wynn Resorts Ltd and others publishing their quarterly results. In addition, speeches from several FOMC members could also be closely watched.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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