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U.K. CBI Realized Sales, U.S. New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories

calendar 26/06/2024 - 08:04 UTC

The U.S. dollar posted a moderate recovery against most major currencies on Tuesday, with the dollar index (USDX) taking back part of the losses seen in the previous session, to end the day 0.13% higher supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as data showing a stable housing market in the world's largest economy, both suggesting that the central bank will not be in a rush to begin its rate-cutting cycle.

Fueled by steady growth in April, home prices remain on the rise whereas consumer confidence dipped slightly in June, but the impact on the dollar was minimal.

A September rate cut is the most likely scenario for the Fed, according to market expectations reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool (nearly 60%) while November is also seen as a strong possibility (over 50%).

In other news, oil prices are trading in a tight range for the past week, hovering around price levels last seen in April, driven by geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict as well as expectations of improving demand and falling inventories in the U.S during the third quarter peak demand season.

Supported by a surge in NVIDIA (up nearly 7%) following three sessions of steep losses, Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday. The tech-heavy indices are regaining momentum towards record highs, while cyclical sectors remain subdued ahead of inflation data (PCE) on Friday.

The spotlight is on economic data today as the UK's CBI releases its Realized Sales index, surveying retailers and wholesalers. In the US, keep an eye out for New Home Sales data and weekly updates on crude oil inventories. Later this week the focus will shift to US GDP numbers and pending home sales due on Thursday while the main focus will be on Friday’s inflation data.


The EUR/USD pair traded within familiar levels on Tuesday ending the session with losses of 0.21%. Momentum is set to remain thin as markets await fresh data to drive market flows beginning on Thursday.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane is expected to deliver some talking points during the European market session.

The US will also release the latest Bank Stress Test results, but performance is not expected to wildly deviate from previous runs through the Federal Reserve’s stress test of the US banking system.

Thursday will kick off the week’s data releases in earnest, with final pan-EU Consumer Confidence figures for June as well as a revision print for Q1’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print.



Gold prices slipped on Tuesday mostly driven by an uptick in the dollar and Treasury yields as market participants awaited U.S. inflation data due later this week that could provide cues on the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview on Monday that he was still looking for inflation to cool further as part of the process that would open the door to a rate cut.

This week, traders are looking forward to the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product estimates due on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report on Friday.



Oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday as weak U.S. consumer confidence data fed worries about the economic outlook and fuel demand after a slow start to the U.S. summer driving season.

U.S. consumer confidence decreased in June. While households remained upbeat about the labor market and expected inflation to moderate, concerns about the economy could dent gasoline demand.

U.S. crude stocks were up by 914,000 barrels in the week ended June 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures that also showed gasoline inventories rose by 3.843 million barrels and distillates fell by 1.178 million barrels. Market participants turn their focus to the release of the official government data which is due later today.


US 500

The US Tech 100 and US 500 posted moderate gains on Tuesday, buoyed by strength in Nvidia and other tech megacaps, while the US 30 slipped as retailers weighed and investors waited for crucial inflation data due out this week.

Artificial intelligence darling NVIDIA Corporation surged nearly 7% on Tuesday, rebounding from three straight days of steep losses, which were sparked by profit-taking and creeping doubts over AI demand.

Furthermore, economically sensitive sectors remained weak in anticipation of PCE price index data later this week.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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