The USDX is gaining ground, trading around 99.00 during Thursday's Asian hours, after a minor -0.08% loss on Wednesday. The dollar is receiving support following positive signals on US-China trade. US President Donald Trump stated late Wednesday that he expects to strike several agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea next week. The discussions are anticipated to cover a wide range of issues, including US soybean exports and limiting nuclear weapons. However, the dollar's upside remains capped by persistent geopolitical and domestic risks. Specifically, the Trump administration is reportedly considering a broad plan to restrict exports to China, spanning items from laptops to jet engines, if they are powered by or manufactured with US software, in response to Beijing's recent curbs on rare earth exports.
In addition, the prolonged US government shutdown continues to delay key economic data releases, adding uncertainty for the Federal Reserve (Fed). Market expectations for easing remain firmly in place: a recent Reuters poll showed 115 out of 117 economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 29th meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates markets are pricing in a nearly 97% chance of an October rate cut.
Gold edged lower below the $4,100 mark during Thursday's early European session, attracting sellers and prompting profit-taking. This downside follows a -0.13% loss on Wednesday. The precious metal's recent weakness is largely attributed to easing trade tensions between the US and China, which has prompted traders to lock in gains. Additionally, some analysts cite reduced physical demand following the end of the Diwali festival in India. However, the downside for the safe-haven asset is limited by several factors: the ongoing US government shutdown and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to bolster safe-haven demand.
Asian equity markets generally extended losses on Thursday with mainland Chinese shares declining sharply amid reports that the Trump administration is considering a broad plan to restrict the export of high-tech products—including jet engines and laptops—to China if they are powered by or manufactured with US software. This move, ratchets up trade friction ahead of a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. As of 05:21 AM GMT, the China SSE dropped -0.7%, the China SZSE fell -0.81%, and the Hong Kong 50 was almost unchanged.
Japanese shares were mixed, extending losses after reaching a record high earlier this week, with investors assessing the sustainability of the recent rally. As of 05:21 AM GMT, the Japan 225 was down -0.28%, while the Japan 100 was 0.09% higher. The market remains focused on new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policy signals, with reports indicating she is preparing a large-scale economic stimulus package aimed at curbing inflation and supporting households.
The main US equity indices were mixed in the previous session, with a selloff taking cues from Wall Street's overnight decline, especially as technology names weighed on the market. Investor sentiment was further dampened by mixed corporate earnings reports, including a sharp drop in Tesla's profit.
In individual stock news, Tesla slipped -0.86% after its quarterly profit sharply missed expectations, though the company exceeded revenue forecasts. Netflix shares plummeted -10% after its operating margin disappointed Wall Street due to a tax dispute with Brazilian authorities. Additionally, Apple fell -1.63% following reports of a "drastic" cut in production orders for its new iPhone Air model.
Furthermore, investors cautiously await the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be closely monitored ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, where a rate cut is widely expected.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair held steady near 1.1600 on Wednesday, showing little reaction amid a quiet economic calendar on both sides of the Atlantic. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the delayed release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for Friday.
Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate sentiment, with persistent US-China trade frictions and the unresolved Russia–Ukraine conflict weighing on the euro. The recent cancellation of a planned Putin–Trump meeting in Budapest further limited the common currency’s upside.
Adding to the cautious tone, Reuters reported that Washington is considering new export restrictions on China involving products made with US software — a move that could heighten risk aversion and pressure the euro.
The ongoing US government shutdown has now entered its 22nd day, with little progress toward a resolution. Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries expressed hope that an agreement could be reached by the end of October, though optimism remains limited.
In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks stated that the next policy adjustment could “as easily be a hike as a cut,” underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s future rate path.
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar features S&P Global PMIs and the September CPI report on Friday. The data could provide key insights ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to a 3.75%–4.00% range.
WTI Oil
Oil prices extended gains late Wednesday after the United States announced new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, targeting two of the country’s largest oil producers over Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, announcing measures against Lukoil and Rosneft.
Oil prices also drew support from signs of robust U.S. fuel demand and tighter supply. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude inventories fell by 961,000 barrels to 422.8 million last week, defying expectations for a 1.2 million-barrel increase.
The sanctions come amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Western governments have increased pressure on Asian buyers to curb Russian oil imports, raising fears of potential supply disruptions.
Concerns were further amplified after a planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was postponed.
Meanwhile, Trump said he had spoken with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who reportedly assured him that India would limit its oil purchases from Russia.
US 500
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and a sharp decline in Netflix shares weighed on investor sentiment.
Investor nerves flared after a Reuters report indicated that the Trump administration is considering a ban on Chinese exports produced with U.S. software, reigniting trade war concerns between the world’s two largest economies.
Netflix tumbled after reporting a third-quarter operating margin of 28%, missing Wall Street estimates due in part to a tax-related charge in Brazil.
Despite the margin disappointment, the streaming giant’s revenue and profit rose, supported by record advertising sales, higher membership growth, and price increases. Apple edged lower after a Nikkei report said the company is significantly reducing production orders for its new iPhone Air, shifting focus to other iPhone 17 models.
All eyes were on Tesla, which reported results after the closing bell. The automaker earlier announced record third-quarter deliveries, driven by aggressive marketing and price cuts ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit.
Broader sentiment remained fragile amid escalating geopolitical tensions. A potential summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been postponed after Moscow reportedly signaled no intention to end the conflict in Ukraine. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could shape expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut at its October meeting.