Nvidia and Retail Giants Take Center Stage in US Corporate Calendar

The euro weakened against the US Dollar on Monday as renewed demand for the Greenback weighed on the pair. The move reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting.

The spotlight is now on this week’s data-heavy calendar, with Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Friday’s Real Earnings figures expected to set the tone for markets.

Safe-haven flows also increased amid renewed concerns about a potential AI-driven market bubble, with NVIDIA’s earnings report due Wednesday adding to investor caution.

Monday’s US data flow was limited, though comments from Federal Reserve officials drew attention. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson sounded mildly dovish, highlighting easing inflation pressures and increasing downside risks to the labor market. In contrast, Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for continuing the easing cycle in December, noting that inflation would be closer to the Fed’s 2% target if tariff effects were stripped out.

In Europe, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said Eurozone inflation remains on track to converge toward the central bank’s target. However, he cautioned that rising tariffs and elevated sovereign debt levels pose significant risks and could shift market sentiment abruptly.

Bitcoin fell under the $90,000 mark on Tuesday, slipping to its lowest level in nearly seven months as growing doubts over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate path and caution surrounding delayed economic data weighed heavily on risk-sensitive assets.

Investor confidence has been shaken by diminishing expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. Comments from several policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, underscored reluctance to ease policy further, leaving markets grappling with an unclear monetary outlook.

The recent U.S. government shutdown continues to cast a shadow as well, with weeks of delayed economic releases limiting policymakers’ visibility. That backlog begins to clear this week, with September’s nonfarm payrolls report due on Thursday.

Cooling demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the downward pressure, with institutional flows softening amid heightened volatility. Crypto-linked equities and mining stocks also posted steep declines, amplifying risk aversion across the broader digital-asset space.

The downturn follows a wave of mass liquidations in crypto derivatives markets, where leveraged positions were rapidly unwound.

Bitcoin’s return to sub-$90,000 levels—last seen in late April—highlights the swift deterioration in sentiment as traders reassess geopolitical risks and recalibrate expectations for U.S. rate cuts.

Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday as supply pressures moderated following the swift restart of operations at Russia’s key export hub, while investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Loading operations at the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea resumed Sunday after a two-day halt triggered by a missile and drone attack attributed to Ukraine. The disruption temporarily removed roughly 2.2 million barrels per day from global markets—about 2% of worldwide supply.

With loadings restored sooner than expected, some of the short-term supply premium built into prices unwound, contributing to Tuesday’s pullback.

On the demand side, traders remain fixated on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that a softening U.S. labor market justifies a rate cut in December, pointing to stagnating hiring and rising layoff discussions.

His dovish tone stands in contrast to the more cautious stance of several other policymakers, who have stressed that persistent inflation warrants patience before easing policy.

Interest-rate expectations remain a key driver for crude. Higher rates tend to slow economic activity, weigh on fuel consumption, and support a stronger dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive. Conversely, a rate cut would boost demand prospects, soften the dollar, and lend support to oil prices.

U.S. equities fell sharply on Monday as sentiment around artificial intelligence–linked stocks deteriorated further, with investors growing increasingly wary of stretched valuations. Nvidia led the downturn ahead of its closely watched quarterly results due later this week.

The spotlight this week is firmly on Nvidia’s earnings, scheduled for release after Wednesday’s closing bell. Analysts expect another strong quarter from the AI chip leader, but the bar is exceptionally high given the company’s towering $5 trillion valuation.

Nvidia has been at the center of recent volatility, with tech stocks experiencing a sharp pullback from late October through early November as investors reassessed sky-high AI-driven valuations. Sentiment took another hit over the weekend after regulatory filings revealed that billionaire investor Peter Thiel exited nearly $100 million worth of Nvidia shares.

Beyond Nvidia, several major U.S. retailers are set to report results, including Target on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. Home Depot, Lowe’s, and TJX Companies will also issue quarterly updates, offering further insight into the health of the U.S. consumer.

With the U.S. government shutdown now resolved, a backlog of delayed economic releases will begin to roll out this week, including new labor and inflation data. One key publication is the September U.S. jobs report, due Thursday, though the White House has indicated that October data may be incomplete due to prior delays.

These figures will play a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year. The Fed has cut rates at its past two meetings, but policymakers have warned that the lack of current data complicates decision-making.