Nasdaq and Gold Hit Record Highs; Apple Falls After iPhone Event

The EUR/USD pair slipped over 0.50% on Tuesday as the US Dollar regained ground despite mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts at next week’s policy meeting.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payrolls were revised downward by 911,000 jobs (-0.6%) through March 2025, underscoring cracks in the labor market. This revision has bolstered the case for a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps), though inflation remains the key variable.

Traders now turn their attention to upcoming US inflation data, with Producer Price Index (PPI) figures due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled later this week, will provide further signals on labor market health ahead of the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting.

In contrast, the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with markets assigning a 93% probability of no policy adjustment and just a 6% chance of a 25-bps cut.

Meanwhile, Europe’s economic calendar remains quiet, with investors awaiting Thursday’s ECB policy decision. Political uncertainty continues in France, though President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister has brought some stability.

Gold prices surged to fresh record highs on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as September but retreated after and ended the session with minor change.

Markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) cut at next week’s meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with some investors also betting on a larger 50-bps move. Friday’s weak August jobs report added to the case for easing, with softer labor data reinforcing the outlook for lower rates.

Lower interest rates tend to weigh on the US dollar and Treasury yields, boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. While the US dollar index held near a seven-week low, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher after recently hitting a five-month trough.

Gold has already surpassed the $3,600/oz mark this week, extending a string of record-setting rallies in 2025. The metal’s momentum has been fueled by a softer dollar, robust central bank purchases, expectations of looser monetary policy, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

Oil prices settled modestly higher on Tuesday after Israel said it carried out a strike against Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, marking an escalation of its military actions in the Middle East. Both benchmarks initially jumped nearly 2% on news of the Israeli strike but later pared gains after the United States reassured Doha that such actions would not be repeated.

Crude had already been trading higher prior to the strike, supported by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase, expectations that China would continue building reserves, and concerns over possible new sanctions against Russia. However, gains were capped by the US Energy Information Administration’s outlook for rising inventories, which it said would put global crude prices under pressure in the months ahead.

US crude inventories rose last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. Official figures from the EIA are due on Wednesday. At the same time, traders are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, with expectations rising for a rate cut following a sharp downward revision to US employment data through March. Lower interest rates could support economic growth and, in turn, boost oil demand, though the broader outlook remains clouded by ample supply and softening physical markets.

The US Tech 100 closed higher on Tuesday, overcoming weakness in Apple shares after the company’s latest iPhone launch failed to excite investors.

Apple fell more than 1% after unveiling its new iPhone 17 lineup and other hardware at its “Awe Dropping” fall event in Cupertino. The iPhone 17 Pro, priced from $1,099, came in $100 above the previous Pro model, while the new $999 iPhone Air replaces the iPhone 16 Plus. The entry-level iPhone 17 remains at $799. Apple also revealed its own networking chip, phasing out components from Broadcom, which sent Broadcom shares down 2.6%.

The broader market was also digesting a sharp revision to US employment data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls for the year through March were over 900,000 jobs lower than previously estimated, suggesting the labor market slowdown began earlier than thought, potentially even before President Trump’s latest round of tariffs took effect. Economists had expected a downward revision of between 400,000 and 1 million jobs.

Investors now turn their focus to key inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to capture some of the inflationary effects from Trump’s tariffs introduced last month. These data points are likely to shape expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, with markets increasingly betting on a rate cut.