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29/04/2025 - 07:24 UTCThe US dollar experienced a sharp decline against most major currencies on Monday, with the dollar index (USDX) registering a loss of approximately 0.84% on the iFOREX trading platform. This movement occurred as markets are seen reacting to doubts about the United States' plans for trade. While US officials mentioned ongoing talks with countries in Asia and regular contact with China analysts at Standard Chartered pointed out that countries aren't working together on trade as much under the current US leadership. They also noted that the World Trade Organization (WTO), which handles global trade rules, isn't playing a big role, and new free trade agreements are likely to take a long time to negotiate and might not succeed.
Meanwhile, China has stated firmly that they are not currently negotiating trade with the US. They also stressed that when countries impose tariffs on each other, everyone loses. This comes as Chinese online retailers like Temu and Shein have significantly increased their prices for American shoppers, illustrating the direct cost of these tariffs. Chinese mainland stock markets, represented by the China SSE and China SZSE indices, experienced slight decreases of 0.16% and 0.64% on Monday. The Hong Kong 50 index also ended the day lower, down by 0.45%.
The main US stock indices were largely unchanged after a day of subdued trading on Wall Street. This cautious stance came as investors braced for upcoming key economic data and first-quarter earnings results from heavyweight firms such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Underlying this hesitancy were growing fears of a global recession and persistent ambiguity regarding U.S.-China tariff discussions. In terms of individual stocks, NVIDIA fell over 2%, while Tesla and Apple saw minor increases.
Investors will also be closely monitoring earnings reports from the "magnificent seven" megacap companies this week, including Apple Inc, Microsoft Corporation, Amazon, and Meta Platforms Inc. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to release their earnings on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Additionally, earnings from other significant companies across various sectors, such as Visa, Coca-Cola Co, and Caterpillar Inc are also due this week.
Market watchers are looking ahead to key US economic data releases later this week, including the first-quarter GDP report and April's jobs report. Investors will closely analyse these figures for signals on whether the Federal Reserve (the Fed) might cut interest rates at their May 7th meeting. Additional key economic releases expected to drive market attention include the JOLTS job openings, U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Interest Rate decision, and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. Furthermore, the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the U.S. unemployment rate could also trigger price movements.
The EUR/USD pair advanced on Monday, climbing more than 0.5% to around 1.1409, as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of key economic data releases and amid uncertainties surrounding new U.S. tariffs.
On Monday, ECB official Olli Rehn indicated that interest rates could be cut below the so-called neutral level if inflation pressures continue to recede. Reuters reported over the weekend that confidence is building among ECB officials regarding a rate reduction next month, with inflation trending steadily downward.
Meanwhile, investor sentiment remains sensitive to developments in US trade policy ahead of Friday’s key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Although US President Donald Trump stated that progress has been made in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied the existence of any ongoing negotiations.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed last week that contact had been made with Chinese authorities, though he stopped short of addressing tariff issues directly. On Monday, Bessent emphasized that while the US remains open to talks, the onus is on China to initiate steps toward resolving the trade imbalance and de-escalating the ongoing tariff dispute.
Bitcoin edged higher on Monday, driven by robust ETF inflows, continued corporate buying, and growing optimism around U.S. crypto regulation.
Bitcoin is now trading close to its strongest levels in two months, with market viewers eyeing a potential breakout above the key psychological threshold of $100,000.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, disclosed a fresh acquisition of 15,355 Bitcoin worth approximately $1.42 billion. The purchase, made between April 21 and April 27, brings the firm’s total holdings to 553,555 Bitcoin—further cementing its status as the largest publicly listed corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.
Broader sentiment in the crypto market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who signaled a friendlier stance toward digital assets.
He also classified Bitcoin as a commodity—drawing a parallel to gold—and stated that he would advocate for federal agencies to adopt a similar perspective.
Oil prices declined on Monday weighed down by persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs, which have clouded the global economic outlook and stoked ongoing concerns over weakening demand.
The downturn was exacerbated by news that Russia had unexpectedly announced a three-day ceasefire with Ukraine, raising hopes of a broader peace initiative that could eventually impact oil supply dynamics.
Despite a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump may seek to ease the impact of proposed automotive tariffs, broader concerns persist.
Additional pressure stems from Trump's push to boost U.S. energy production and reduce fuel prices, moves that have unsettled oil markets by raising the prospect of oversupply.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, Russia announced a surprise ceasefire with Ukraine to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II. The ceasefire, set to run from May 8 to May 10, has fueled speculation that Moscow may still be open to a longer-term peace settlement.
Meanwhile, traders are also cautious ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to announce a second consecutive monthly increase in production quotas. The prospect of rising output amid an already fragile demand outlook presents further headwinds for crude markets.
U.S. equity markets posted modest gains on Monday, with the US 500 ending the session 0.44$ higher as investors weighed upbeat trade commentary from the Treasury Department and looked ahead to a pivotal week of corporate earnings.
Investor sentiment received a modest lift from hopes of easing global trade tensions. In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said several nations had submitted “very good” tariff proposals and indicated that trade negotiations were progressing well across multiple regions.
Markets have remained sensitive to the direction of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, whose tariff measures have at times rattled global markets and heightened fears of a slowdown.
Investors are closely watching a slate of earnings this week from some of the largest U.S. companies, with a combined market capitalization of roughly $20 trillion. The spotlight is on members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” particularly Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. These reports are seen as key indicators of corporate resilience amid elevated trade uncertainty and growing capital expenditures tied to artificial intelligence.
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