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30
Sep

Italian, EU CPI, U.S. PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending

calendar 30/09/2022 - 09:49 UTC

The U.S. dollar significantly weakened again other major currencies on Thursday for the second day in a row. In emerging markets though the sentiment was somewhat mixed. The USD/TRY pair continues heading higher and while the USD/CNH retraced lower, only smaller movements were seen in the USD/ZAR and USD/INR.

Major stock market indices around the world turned lower on Thursday. Even in China, where the China A50 index was in the green at the start of the week the market sentiment soured, though the index still remained by Friday morning in the green on a weekly basis.

Crypto markets overall moved higher with Bitcoin again above $19,500 and the total crypto market cap estimated to be not far from the one trillion dollar mark. Among the biggest cryptos the strong upside in Ripple was particularly noticeable as the fourth biggest non-stablecoin crypto in terms of market cap jumped higher by 8.5% on Thursday and continued to move to the upside by Friday morning. Ripple Labs achieved a victory in court in its attempt to receive documents about a speech delivered in 2018 by then SEC Division Director William Hinman who indicated that Bitcoin and Ethereum were not securities. This is an important development as the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs and its CEO, where it alleged that XRP Ripple was a security.

On Friday in the U.S. data on personal income and consumer spending will be published as well as the highly-anticipated PCE price index. Later on the Chicago PMI Business Barometer and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results will be published.

EUR/USD

As the dollar turned weaker from its position of strength, the EUR/USD rate managed on Thursday to end the day once again with a strong upside and remained later on mostly above or at least close to the 0.98-level. At the same time the common European currency itself was also performing very strongly against other majors with the exception of the pound sterling (GBP) as this currency outperformed almost all others on Thursday with its strong recovery as the GBP/USD very strongly recovered ending the day up by more than three per cent.

On Friday multiple potentially important data releases can be expected starting with the German and eurozone unemployment rate as well as the Italian and eurozone consumer price index (CPI) statistic. Later on in the U.S. the PCE price index for August will be published. This is a key statistic which the Federal Reserve takes into account when coming up with its policy decision.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices continued to push higher on Thursday just as the dollar overall reversed from its position of strength and also yields in the U.S. dollar bond markets rapidly declined again. At the same time the Gold (EUR) CFD ended the day clearly in the red and actually still very close to the levels seen even a week ago before the turmoil started in the FX markets.

Platinum and especially palladium prices edged clearly higher on Thursday with the latter on track to end the week with the best performance in four weeks.

As usual on Friday U.S. CFTC Commitment of Traders data will be published, which among other indicators also shows the net speculative positions of traders in futures markets like gold, silver, copper and other underlying.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices remained by the end of the day almost unchanged on Thursday and no significant movements were either seen by Friday morning. As it stands oil prices are very well on track to end the month for the fourth time in a row lower and also to end a quarter for the first time lower since early 2020, when the market was servery disorganised by the impact of the pandemic-related lockdowns.

On Friday as usual the U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count statistic will be published.

WTI Oil

US 500

Major stock market indices like the US Tech 100 and the US 500 traded lower on Thursday and thus erased all the gains from Wednesday. Some of the biggest losses were seen among utility (US Utilities ETF -3.99%) and chip companies (US Semiconductors ETF -3.05%).

Some of the weakest performing companies in these major indices were companies involved in the electric vehicle market either as car makers like Tesla (-6.79%) and Lucid (-6.83%) or in the charging infrastructure like SolarEdge (-8.18%) and ChargePoint (-5.66%). Stocks of traditional car manufacturers like Ford (-5.90%) and General Motors (-5.61%) also came under pressure. Some analysts see the risk that the Fed will continue to tighten its policy as the job market remains strong with last week only 193 thousand new jobless claims reported and fears that the PCE price index, which will be released today could give the central bankers more reasons to continue tightening the funding conditions.

Nike stocks plunged by more than 12 per cent in the extended trading session after the company announced its quarterly results. While according to CNBC quoting Refinitiv data the company's earnings at $0.93 per share and especially the revenue at $12.69 billion were better than anticipated, there were still concerns over the supply chain situation and what might have been even more troubling for some a rise in unsold inventory, which for North American was up by 65 per cent compared to last year.

US 500

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