The USDX is trading on a negative note near 98.90 during Wednesday's early European session, giving back some of the momentum built after posting a 0.39% gain on Tuesday. The dollar's strength is being undermined by a persistent combination of the prolonged US government shutdown and the high probability of further easing by the Federal Reserve. The US government shutdown has now entered its 22nd day after the Senate again failed to pass a funding measure, eroding investor confidence and complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making due to the suspension of key economic data releases. Despite the data drought, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are currently pricing in nearly 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's October 29th meeting. Limiting the USDX's losses, however, are modest positive developments surrounding US-China trade relations. US President Donald Trump predicted late Tuesday that an upcoming meeting with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, would yield a "good deal" on trade, though he acknowledged the talks might not materialize. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese officials to discuss de-escalation ahead of the potential high-level trade talks.
Gold edged higher during Wednesday's early European session, trading near $4,150, but the precious metal remains under pressure after moving over $6%$ lower in the previous session. Gold is finding modest support from persistent concerns regarding the impact of the US government shutdown and broader fears about global government debt sustainability. However, the easing of US-China trade tensions—as both sides prepare for talks ahead of the November 1st tariff deadline, is undermining safe-haven demand.
Asian equity markets pulled back on Wednesday following two days of sharp gains, with technology stocks generally weighing on sentiment. The China SSE gained 0.10%, while the China SZSE fell -0.61%, and the Hong Kong 50 dropped -0.46% as of 06:53 AM GMT. These mixed signals reignited concerns over renewed tariff threats and strategic friction between the world's two largest economies. The Japan 225 was almost unchanged, while the Japan 100 rose 0.95% as of 06:53 AM GMT, showing mixed reaction following an initial pullback from the previous session's record highs. The market digested Japan’s latest trade data, which showed exports rising for the first time in five months but missing forecasts, and a larger-than-expected trade deficit. Investors are also assessing the first policy signals from the new government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who was formally sworn in on Tuesday and pledged to revive fiscal stimulus, though caution remains over balancing growth initiatives with the country's high public debt.
The main US equity indices were mixed in the previous session, however, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite edged lower due to weakness in major technology names, while the S&P 500 finished nearly flat. In individual stock news, General Motors shares surged nearly 14.88% after the automaker raised its full-year forecast, citing resilient demand and mitigating tariff impacts. 3M rose approximately 7.67% after the industrial conglomerate improved its profit forecast. Additionally, Coca-Cola shares advanced over 4.06% after the beverage maker reported solid third-quarter demand and revenue growth. In after-hours trading, streaming giant Netflix slipped after posting disappointing quarterly results. Attention now shifts to the fresh slate of corporate earnings later this week, including Tesla, which is due to report on Wednesday.
Investor caution remains high ahead of Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could cement expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, though the ongoing US government shutdown is complicating data flows and adding uncertainty.
EUR/USD
The Euro edged lower against the US Dollar on Wednesday, with EUR/USD pair ending the session below 1.1600 as the Greenback gained momentum as renewed investor confidence as geopolitical tensions ease and hopes rise for a resolution to the ongoing US government shutdown.
White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett suggested that the shutdown could end “sometime this week,” while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer noted that he and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries have reached out to President Trump to negotiate a reopening of the government.
Adding to the upbeat sentiment, reports indicate that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to advance trade discussions.
With the US economic calendar relatively light this week, traders are turning their attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ upcoming inflation report.
In Europe, attention is focused on upcoming speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos, as the Eurozone’s data flow remains subdued.
The Euro continues to face headwinds as investors await fresh catalysts. Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Traders are also pricing in an additional 0.25% cut by December.
Gold
Gold prices tumbled on Tuesday, marking their steepest daily decline since 2020, as investors locked in profits following a record-breaking rally fueled by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand.
The decline comes just a day after the precious metal surged to an all-time high capping a year-to-date gain of nearly 60%. The rally had been driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, and continued central bank purchases.
Moreover, a possible resolution to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and progress on U.S.–China trade talks could lead to a period of price consolidation for gold over the next few weeks.
Silver mirrored gold’s decline, dropping 8.27%. Market participants are now focused on Friday’s delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, which is expected to show a 3.1% annual increase. The data will be closely watched ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut.
WTI Oil
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, recovering from five-month lows hit in the previous session as investors reassessed oversupply concerns and awaited clarity on trade relations between the United States and China — the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Both benchmarks had fallen to their lowest levels since early May on Monday, pressured by record U.S. production and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies maintaining plans for gradual supply increases.
The ongoing U.S.–China trade dispute remains a key factor shaping demand expectations. While investors fear that slowing global growth could weigh on oil consumption, both Washington and Beijing have recently signaled efforts to ease tensions.
A preliminary Reuters poll released Monday indicated that U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose last week, suggesting that the long-anticipated inventory build is beginning to emerge.
Separately, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. government plans to purchase one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a move that could provide limited near-term support for prices.
US 30
The US 30 closed at a record high on Tuesday, lifted by strong corporate earnings from major blue-chip companies including Coca-Cola, 3M, and RTX. Gains were capped, however, by a sharp decline in Alphabet shares following renewed competition concerns in the web browser space.
Coca-Cola shares climbed after the beverage giant reported better-than-expected third-quarter profit and revenue, citing resilient global demand despite describing market conditions as “challenging.”
3M Company gained more than 7% after the industrial conglomerate raised its full-year earnings and margin guidance, supported by stronger-than-expected quarterly results.
RTX Corp jumped after the aerospace and defense firm boosted its full-year outlook on the back of robust demand for missiles and aftermarket services. Meanwhile, Beyond Meat shares surged after the company announced plans to expand distribution of select plant-based products to over 2,000 Walmart stores nationwide.
Alphabet Inc. dropped more than 2%, weighing on the broader tech sector, after OpenAI unveiled a new AI-powered web browser called ChatGPT Atlas. The launch marks an escalation in browser competition, following the recent debut of Perplexity’s Comet browser, raising concerns over Alphabet’s market dominance.
Broader market sentiment was supported by renewed optimism surrounding both U.S. political and trade developments.
White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC that the ongoing government shutdown “is likely to end sometime this week,” a statement that bolstered risk appetite after prolonged political gridlock had dampened confidence and delayed key economic data releases.