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18
Jun

German ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production

calendar 18/06/2024 - 07:48 UTC

The U.S. dollar posted a moderate decline against other major currencies on Monday, with the dollar index (USDX) hovering around the 105.0 once more early on Tuesday. Some price action could be observed in the greenback as key speeches are due from several Fed members which could provide further clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook following last week's policy decision.

Market expectations, as reflected by the CME FedWatch Tool, heavily favor a rate cut by the Fed in September (56.7%) with November also a strong possibility (50.2%).

In other news, oil prices gained sharply on Monday reaching their highest levels in a month, with the two main benchmarks WTI and Brent, up by 2.66% and 2.36% respectively. According to reports, the move was attributed to the OPEC+ producer group, the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration which raised confidence that oil demand will improve in the second half of the year.

Optimism is running high on Wall Street, with the US 500 and the US tech 100 marking new all-time highs, driven by technology shares rallied on enthusiasm over artificial intelligence ahead of this week's economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches that could shed light on monetary policy.

In corporate news, megacaps Apple and Microsoft recovered sharply from previous losses while shares of GameStop (GME) tumbled on Monday after CEO Ryan Cohen told investors that the videogame retailer plans to operate a smaller network of stores but did not provide details on what it intends to do with its cash pile. GameStop shares were down 11.6% at $25.38 on Monday afternoon after the annual general shareholder meeting. Goldman Sachs upped their 2024 S&P 500 target to 5,600, a jump from their previous forecast of 5,200. Evercore ISI went even further, raising their target to 6,000 from a prior estimate of 4,750.

Economic data takes center stage today with German ZEW sentiment, US retail sales, and industrial production on the docket. However, the main event for investors may be later speeches by Fed members, which could offer hints about the central bank's future plans.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair recovered t on Monday as market sentiment shifts back into rate cut hopes to kick off the new trading week.

US data will dominate financial headlines with Retail Sales slated for Tuesday, leaving markets shuffling in place until Friday’s global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures update.

Throughout the week’s upcoming economic calendar, various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to make appearances, with several policymakers expressing a notably cautious stance on Monday.

Later in the week, EU and US PMI figures scheduled for Friday are expected to split results, with market forecasts expecting a slight uptick in pan-EU activity and a slight decrease expected in US PMI figures.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices retreated on Monday due to rising US Treasury bond yields after Federal Reserve (Fed) officials decided to keep rates unchanged and revised their expectations on rate cuts from three to one later in the year.

The precious metal is on the defensive as US Treasury bond yields advance after Fed officials remained hawkish.

Market participants will watch the release of Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Initial Jobless Claims, and the PMI figures.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices surged nearly $2 a barrel on Monday to their highest settlement levels in over a month, adding to last week's gains as investors grew more optimistic on the demand outlook.

Last week, both benchmarks posted their first weekly gain in four weeks after reports from the OPEC+ producer group, the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration raised confidence that oil demand will improve in the second half of the year and help inventories draw down.

Economic data from China also supported hopes of stronger oil demand from the top importer. Manufacturing investment in China in the first five months of this year showed robust growth of 9.6%, government data showed on Monday.

WTI Oil

US 500

U.S. main indexes started the week with gains with the US 500 and US Tech 100 scored record closing highs as technology shares rallied on enthusiasm over artificial intelligence ahead of this week's economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches that could shed light on monetary policy.

Autodesk jumped near 6.50% after a report that activist investor Starboard Value had bought a roughly $500 million stake in the software maker. Apple shares extended their rally from last week when the company announced new AI features meant to rekindle demand for iPhones.

This week's economic data includes May retail sales data on Tuesday, followed by industrial production, housing starts and the S&P flash Purchasing Managers' Index.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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