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13
Sep

German and U.S. CPI, Italian Unemployment Rate

calendar 13/09/2022 - 08:09 UTC

The U.S. dollar was trading weaker against most other currencies including emerging market pairs like the USD/ZAR and USD/INR with the latter down to its lowest level in five weeks. One of the few exceptions was the USD/TRY rate which remained within a fairly restricted range - trend that could be observed already over the past few week.

Sentiment in the crypto markets was a bit mixed. Bitcoin managed finally to establish itself above the $22k threshold, while among the biggest altcoins by market cap Solana was performing strongly with the price up by around ten per cent since midnight on Monday. Ethereum meanwhile moved somewhat lower ahead of the much-anticipated change towards a proof-of-stake blockchain mechanism.

U.S. and European market indices continued to push higher on Monday. While markets like the Europe 50 and France 40 continued to make advances by Tuesday morning, U.S. indices like the US Tech 100 and US 500 traded almost unchanged.

On Tuesday in the U.S. the CPI statistics for August will be published. The overall expectations point towards a higher Core CPI (previous +5.9% y/y)m while the CPI could come down a bit (previous +8.5% y/y)

EUR/USD

In forex markets the trend for a stronger dollar seems to be reversing with the EUR/USD pair at times trading close to the 1.02-level and thus reaching a new three weeks high. This market move can be mostly attributed to a weakness of the greenback, as the common European currency was trading overall fairly stable against other majors during the past few days.

On Tuesday morning German consumer price index (CPI) data for August will be published, followed a few hours later by the results of the ZEW survey and the Italian unemployment rate.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices continued heading higher at a moderate pace just as the dollar was under pressure compared to other major currencies. Meanwhile, the Gold (EUR) CFD fell during the Monday session intraday to its lowest level since July. While the dollar was weakened over the past few days, which in theory could spur higher prices given the fact that the commodity becomes cheaper for holders of currencies other than dollars, the developments on the fixed income markets might also play a role. For example the yield of the 10-year U.S. T-Note benchmark remains elevated above 3.3%, not far from the recent high and high rates in theory at least could be seen as negative for non-yielding assets like gold, given the increased opportunity costs.

Other precious metals meanwhile rallied higher at a much faster pace with silver up by more than five per cent on Monday and platinum and palladium also trading with a strong upside, though the latter also strongly retraced by Tuesday morning while the former remain for now with the bulk of the gains from the Monday session.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices were up on Monday for the third trading day in a row. One of the geopolitical developments possibly also affecting the oil markets was that a possible deal with Iran on its nuclear program appears to become a less and less likely outcome from the recent talks.

Meanwhile on the demand side, the scrapping of Covid measures in more and more countries, now with New Zealand ending almost all restrictions could also be a factor to consider. Though the key question remains for how long China will keep up its zero Covid policies which lead to local lockdowns in multiple affected areas.

As usual on Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes its weekly statistical bulletin, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday, which also includes data on changes in crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

For Tuesday the release of the monthly oil market report by OPEC is scheduled and then on Wednesday the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly OECD oil statistic.

WTI Oil

US Tech 100

Major stock market indices like the US 30 and US Tech 100 were once again trading higher on Monday, making it the fourth day in a row where the market had a bullish performance. The upside was seen among most economic sectors with a strong performance especially among tech stocks (US Technology ETF +1.49%) and energy companies (US Energy ETF +1.78%)

Lucid Group (+9.55%) was by a wide margin the best-performing component of the NASDAQ Composite Index on Monday. The bullish performance was attributed to an upgraded price target from analysts of the brokerage firm R.F. Lafferty.

Oracle shares were up by almost three per cent in the extended session as the company presented its quarterly results. Revenue measured up to expectations with a year on year growth of 18%, while earnings per share at $1.03 (adjusted) were slightly below the consensus according to CNBC quoting Refinitiv data.

On Thursday Adobe is set to publish its quarterly results.

US Tech 100

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