Fed Cut Hopes Weigh on USDX; XRP Soars, US Stocks Up

The Euro extended its losses against the US Dollar on Thursday amid broad-based Dollar strength and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data.

June’s U.S. Retail Sales figures surprised to the upside, rising 0.6% month-over-month—well above the expected 0.1% gain and rebounding from May’s sharp -0.9% drop. Core Retail Sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, also outperformed with a 0.5% increase versus the prior month’s 0.2% rise.

The upbeat momentum was reinforced by the latest labor market and manufacturing data. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 221,000 for the week, below the forecast of 235,000, indicating continued tightness in employment.

The string of positive U.S. data bolstered market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, lending further support to the Dollar and pressuring major counterparts like the Euro.

On the Eurozone side, June inflation data provided no meaningful support for the single currency. Headline CPI held steady at 2.0% year-over-year, in line with both expectations and the European Central Bank’s target. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.3% YoY.

In the background, trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU remain a key focus for markets. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington for urgent talks, with hopes that a deal can be reached before the August 1 deadline. However, uncertainty lingers, and the potential for a tariff escalation continues to pose downside risks for the Euro, particularly given the Eurozone’s reliance on exports.

Bitcoin extended its rally in Asian trading on Friday, climbing back above the $120,000 mark as momentum builds around U.S. legislative efforts to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets.

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had surged to an all-time high above $123,000 before pulling back slightly on profit-taking and investor caution ahead of key legislative votes. Despite the retracement, sentiment remains broadly positive as regulatory clarity begins to take shape.

Investor enthusiasm was fueled by the U.S. House of Representatives’ approval of three major cryptocurrency-related bills on Thursday—part of what’s been dubbed “crypto week” in Washington. The centerpiece, the GENIUS Act, passed with strong bipartisan support in a 308–122 vote, following its earlier approval in the Senate. The bill now heads to President Trump for final sign-off.

The GENIUS Act lays the groundwork for more rigorous oversight of stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain high-quality, dollar-equivalent reserves and submit to regular audits. The legislation also introduces a dual regulatory regime under both federal and state supervision.

The coordinated push was widely welcomed by crypto advocates and policymakers, who view the legislative progress as a significant step toward a more stable and predictable regulatory environment for digital assets.

While the GENIUS Act is headed to the President’s desk, the other two bills must still pass the Senate, leaving some uncertainty around the final shape of the U.S. regulatory framework.

With regulatory momentum building in Washington and investor optimism growing, the crypto market appears poised to maintain its upward trajectory—pending any surprises from U.S. lawmakers or global macroeconomic developments.

Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by escalating geopolitical tensions after a series of drone strikes hit oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan for a fourth consecutive day, underscoring growing supply risks in an already fragile region.

According to regional officials, the attacks—which are suspected to be carried out by Iran-backed militias—have slashed oil production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, more than half of the area’s typical output of around 280,000 bpd.

Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets remain on edge over impending U.S. tariff announcements. President Donald Trump has signaled that formal notifications regarding new tariff rates for smaller trading partners will be issued soon. He also hinted at potential progress in negotiations with China and the European Union, particularly around drug trafficking and trade.

Adding to the bullish momentum, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)—a much steeper drawdown than the 552,000-barrel decline forecast in a Reuters poll. The tighter supply conditions are reinforcing the view that global oil demand remains strong.

Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring rainfall to parts of Southeast Louisiana but is not forecast to develop into a named storm. While the storm is not currently viewed as a threat to Gulf Coast oil infrastructure, weather-related disruptions remain a wild card for the market in the coming weeks.

U.S. equity markets rallied to fresh all-time highs on Thursday, as investors welcomed strong retail sales data and upbeat corporate earnings, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of American consumers and the broader economy.

The rally comes after a volatile spring marked by a steep selloff in early April following President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. Markets have since rebounded sharply, and this week’s economic and earnings data served as a critical litmus test for the durability of the recent gains.

A sharper-than-expected rebound in U.S. retail sales for June helped drive market momentum on Thursday. The data suggested that consumers remain confident and willing to spend, even as inflation pressures linger and uncertainty over trade policy remains elevated.

The Federal Reserve, which has signaled caution on cutting interest rates in the face of Trump’s escalating tariffs, reiterated its wait-and-see stance.

Investors also cheered a series of upbeat earnings reports from major U.S. companies. PepsiCo surged almost 7.5% after delivering better-than-expected guidance, fueled by strong demand for energy drinks and healthier beverage options.

United Airlines gained more than 3% following a positive outlook on summer travel demand, despite lingering pressures from federal budget constraints and trade tensions.

Technology stocks continued to lead the charge, boosted by optimism around artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand.

Netflix climbed 1.95% during regular trading and extended gains in after-hours following better-than-expected earnings, supported by strong engagement driven by the final season of its global hit series "Squid Game."