The U.S. Dollar (USD) faced pressure on Monday, slipping to its lowest level since January, with the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) ending the session 0.58% lower, hovering around 102.20. This decline followed a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, as investors anticipated clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Fed officials have expressed concern about the potential for easing monetary policy, particularly as the U.S. economy continues to grow above trend. This suggests that the market may be overestimating the likelihood of aggressive future rate cuts.
All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, where investors hope to gain further insight into the central bank’s outlook.
U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, extending gains from the previous week, which saw the largest percentage increase of the year. Investors turned their attention to the Democratic National Convention and the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the three major U.S. stock indexes to a higher close, buoyed by strong performances from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Among individual stocks, Advanced Micro Devices climbed 4.5% after announcing plans to acquire server maker ZT Systems for $4.9 billion, a move aimed at expanding its artificial intelligence portfolio to better compete with Nvidia.
On the energy front, Oil prices edged lower on Monday, continuing recent losses as traders reacted to reports of progress towards an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, leading to a reduction in the risk premium on crude. Additionally, concerns over weak demand, particularly from China, the world's largest oil importer, kept crude prices subdued.
The uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply was compounded by these demand fears. Further weighing on the market, China’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged on Tuesday, following an unexpected rate cut in July.
Market participants are also watching for more economic signals from the U.S. this week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair climbed by more than a half a percent on Monday as investors began the new trading week with a renewed appetite for risk.
This rally comes amid a backdrop of mixed U.S. economic data, which had previously sparked concerns of a looming recession.
However, recent positive data has helped ease those fears, with investors now closely watching for any indications of upcoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
As the week progresses, market participants are gearing up for a series of key events, including the release of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and the U.S., along with the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. These events are expected to significantly influence market sentiment, beginning on Thursday.
In the Eurozone, the HCOB PMI figures for August are projected to show slight improvement. The Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to edge up to 46.0 from 45.8, while the Services PMI is expected to remain steady at 51.9.