Asian Markets Mixed on China Property Fears, Focus Shifts to U.S. PCE Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading steadily on Thursday, with subdued price action reflecting thinner liquidity as U.S. markets close for the Thanksgiving holiday. Even so, the Dollar remains on the defensive as softer U.S. inflation, weaker retail sales, and declining consumer sentiment reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

With no major U.S. releases on the calendar, investors continue to digest this week’s data, which point to easing price pressures and cooling consumer demand.

Recent dovish signals from policymakers—most notably New York Fed President John Williams—have further anchored expectations. Still, a surprisingly resilient Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending November 21 has tempered the fully dovish narrative, as filings for unemployment benefits came in below both forecasts and the prior reading.

In the Eurozone, consumer confidence improved modestly ahead of the holiday season, suggesting households are becoming slightly more willing to spend. However, European Central Bank officials remain cautious. ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks reiterated that now is not the time to begin cutting rates, even as sentiment indicators show hints of stabilization.

Bitcoin stabilized early on Friday after climbing back above the $90,000 threshold this week, supported by growing expectations of an imminent interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and renewed speculation over a potential change at the central bank’s helm.

The token has recovered sharply from last Friday’s drop near $80,000—its weakest level since April—and is now on track for a weekly gain of nearly 8%, snapping a four-week losing streak. Institutional inflows have also helped fuel the rebound.

Bitcoin’s rally has closely aligned with a swift jump in market expectations for a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign roughly an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point reduction—up from about 39% just a week earlier.

Lower interest rates typically improve liquidity conditions and tend to increase investor demand for higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Sentiment has also been buoyed by speculation that Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser, could be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Market participants generally view him as more dovish than the current leadership, which could signal a tilt toward a more aggressive easing cycle.

Oil prices were broadly stable in Asian trading on Friday as investors assessed renewed U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to advance a Russia-Ukraine peace framework and looked ahead to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting for signals on the supply outlook heading into early 2026.

Washington has been coordinating with Kyiv on a revised roadmap aimed at advancing negotiations to end the nearly four-year conflict. The proposal—discussed in Geneva in recent days—outlines phased security guarantees and territorial parameters that Western officials believe could serve as a foundation for eventual talks with Moscow.

Any meaningful progress could, over time, ease sanctions-related constraints on Russian crude exports, unwinding part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in global oil prices.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week that the U.S.-Ukraine framework “could form the basis” of a future agreement, though he emphasized that no final text has been approved and reiterated Moscow’s unwillingness to make major concessions.

With geopolitical developments still evolving, traders have turned their attention to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The producer alliance is widely expected to keep output levels unchanged and instead concentrate on rolling out a long-planned capacity review mechanism as it navigates rising non-OPEC production and uneven global demand.

U.S. equities staged a strong recovery this week as markets priced in a growing likelihood of a December interest-rate cut. Technology stocks led much of the rebound, though sector performance was uneven.

Shares of NVIDIA  underperformed following reports that Alphabet’s Google is developing its own artificial intelligence chips—potentially increasing competitive pressure on the semiconductor giant. Still, the Google reports kept broader market enthusiasm for AI intact.

Expectations for a near-term policy shift rose sharply after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a string of weaker U.S. data releases.

Speculation over a more dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell also supported risk sentiment. A recent report indicated that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, is the leading candidate. Markets view Hassett as supportive of President Donald Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates.

Trading in U.S. equity futures was briefly disrupted Thursday evening after a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange halted activity across several contracts. The interruption came amid already thin post-Thanksgiving volumes. CME Group said the issue stemmed from a technical malfunction at CyrusOne data centers and confirmed that engineers were working to restore normal operations. The outage affected a broad range of commodity futures and derivatives, adding to the subdued liquidity typical of the holiday period.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic releases next week—some of the only data points available to the Fed before its December meeting.